Mar 25, 1999, 5:40pm

So much nuze, so little time. Maybe a recap is in order? Stuff that's been going on:

• I took delivery of my new espresso machine (you'll find out more about this soon)
  
• I've been juggling 4 different work projects with two personal projects, all web based. I'm tapped!
  
• I took delivery of a part that prevented my espresso machine from working
  Jean and I had a little getaway this past weekend
  
• I had this amazing rant in the works (a bunch of predictions) but it's not done yet
  
• I'm building a coffee mecca website. It looks pretty cool, and it's my first fully framed project in about 2 years (not counting the archive on this site).
  
• My notebook is shipped off for a major warranty repair. I don't wanna talk about it (sob!)
  
• And other assorted stuff.
  
  

And other assorted stuff.

Okay, some meat. First, I know I said in the last rant I was gonna pontificate over how Microsoft was gonna pursue Flash like they did Netscape, but I'll save that for another time... My current subject? I've been working on this for a while now, and I think it's going to be a two parter. Here's part one.

I'm predicting a major collapse of the Internet as we know it, within 3 years, and possibly as soon as 2001.

Collapse? What the hell do I mean? Think 1929 and the stock market.

Let's look at some background, and similarities between the events leading up to the 1929 stock market crash and the current Internet frenzy, especially when it comes to commerce. During the couple of years leading up to the 1929 crash (and subsequent worldwide depression), the market was growing in huge leaps and bounds based on speculation. Stock traders would trade and sell stocks simply because they were there. They wouldn't even pay full price for the stocks... they would pay the equivalent of "bonds" on the stocks, placing about 5% real cash down on their stock purchase, and financing the rest. The speculation part comes from the idea that this stock, bought for 5% down, would increase in value so quickly, that the additional 95% would be paid by the profits the stock made.

For a while, this worked. Stocks increased in value (paper value) enormously, leading up to the crash. And how did the crash occur? It started when the money lenders and stock sellers decided, na na, no more 95% speculation loans. You want to buy this stock? Pay the full price. It only took a few to start the wave, but within days it became a giant tidal wave that ruined millions of people and thousands of companies. Companies that one day were worth $10 million on paper were worth $10,000 on paper the next day.

I think the same thing is going to happen to the Internet, and it's associated stocks.

Let's look at modern day examples. Yahoo stock is worth a fortune. But it hasn't made a dime yet, and probably never will (except of course for the owners, who have made millions already). Netscape - never made a cent, but the stock was gold. Same thing for most Internet stocks you see on the market. A shitload of cash has been moved on the various stock markets into "internet stocks", and almost no company shows a profit for their stockholders. Yet speculation on the "hip" stocks to own runs rampant throughout the trading world. These prices are hyperinflated, and with the current way these businesses operate, I doubt any of them will show real profit, or even demonstrate that they are worth 1/10th their current paper values.

The bubble is going to burst on these soon. The way I see things (albeit from a layman's position), most of these stocks are bought by people who know nothing about the Internet, but do seem to think Internet stocks are the most valuable things to have in their portfolios. I blame it on Netscape. Remember when Netscape went public? A $10 presale valued stock sold for something like $60 the first day! I recall it peaked at over $100 (or was it $200?) within a few days of trading. All this frenzy because at the time, Netscape was the top browser by a wide margin, and rumours and speculation were everywhere about how Netscape might even unseat Microsoft as the O/S king.

The thing is, those are semi valid reasons for buying the stock at the time... especially the browser part. But because of the explosion in Netscape stock value, people forgot why it sold so high when it came out... all they could remember was... "yeowtch! $10 initial offer, $60 first day trading! I coulda made a killing!!! I'm buying the next initial offer internet stock I see!"

So Yahoo goes public. People go nuts and make Jerry et al instant near billionaires. Excite goes public. Geocities goes public. E-bay goes public. People continue to go nuts. Anytime a major presence on the Internet goes public, the stock trading world loses it's marbles and buys the stocks for hyperinflated prices.

And it's gonna end soon folks. Think about it. The guys that bought Yahoo initially, then turned around weeks later and sold for 1000% profits did good, but how about a long term stock owner who bought high, makes maybe .05% profit if he sells 3 years later, yet sees no dividends or profits from his stock ownership because Yahoo constantly loses money? Do you think, after say 5 years as a publicly traded company, Yahoo stock will be still popular? No... people are finally going to go "this is ridiculous, and these stocks are hyperinflated" just like they did in 1929.

So why do I say "the Internet is gonna collapse" within 3 years? Because my big time buddies, the progress of the Net as you and I know it today is directly related to the value of all these Internet stocks, and once the money is pulled (big time pulled) I think the plug on the Internet will be pulled soon after.

But I'll have more on this in my next rant.

Till next time... thanks for stopping by!

0 comments | reply

Mixelania

Photos from Algonquin Park
Photos from my trip to Algonquin Park this fall with my Mom and two brothers.

War Stories

Making Snow for the Fortress
One of the worst jobs I ever had... till I got out.

Webiffied

Tools I Use
The tools I use to build websites and lead a tech life.

iPod and iTunes Offline

iMark's iTunes and iPod isn't iPlaying anything right iNow.

Most Recent Songs

Fiddlers Green by The Tragically Hip

Around The Bend by Pearl Jam

Here With Me (Rollo's Chillin' With the Family Mix) by Dido

With arms open wide by Creed

truffle pigs by Matthew Good Band

In the News

Burundi and Beyond - NY Times
Great article by Peter Meehan - provided some background.

St. Petersburg Times
Side mention in an article about good machines

AP Story on Espresso
Background and information provided

NY Times - Grinders Article
Especially proud of this one - got the reporter to focus on grinders

Globe and Mail
LOL - showing bad reporting, dude says I'm an American-based site!

The Olympian, WA
Talks about my love for the El Sal Siberia Pacamara

Seattle Times - Clover
Interviewed for comments on the Clover brewer

NY Times - How it Works
Background and information for various espresso machines

Time Mag Article
Just a brief mention, article about roasting beans.

NY Times
Front page article about consumers getting into specialty coffee.

Washington Monthly
Quoted reference to what I wrote in an article at CoffeeGeek.

USA Today - Barista Jam
Intereviewed for my thoughts on what the epitome of espresso is.

WSJ Article
The Wall Street Journal has interviewed me 3 times. This is the first time my name got in a story.

Reuters Interview
Interview with Reuters, Jan 2 - this is the USA Today version.

My Other Stuff

CoffeeGeek
Launched Dec 22, 2001, this is THE online community for espresso and coffee fanatics.

CoffeeKid Website
It's all new, as of March, 2002. My personal coffee obsession site.

WebMotif Services
My company's site - needs an update!

Amazon WishList
Hey, if you feel the need to buy me something, check here!

Daily Visits

enGadget
Great gadget site run by the guy who used to do Gizmodo.

Google News
This is how I get my daily news fix.

DPReview Forums`
The most active forums for digital photography online today.

Daily Zen
Need my Daily Zen fix!

Jalopnik
A blog about car stuff. Vroom Vroom.

MoCo Loco
An industrial design blog. Very cool stuff.

Friends and Family Plan

Beata Blog
Beata's got her own blog! She updates it most days.

Riddla on Flickr
Matt Riddle's flickr account, updated regularly

Irdy Photos
Irdy, my friend from Jakharta, on Flickr

Recent Acquisitions

Canon EF 24-105 f4 L Lens
The best lens I've ever owned. Super sharp and quick.

Canon 5D
A full frame dSLR, with luscious colour reproduction.

Alzo Digital Lights
Some amazing florescent cold lights for product photography

Canon Xsi dSLR
Amazing technology and image quality in a tiny package.

Canon 40D
Latest prosumer camera from Canon - a much better upgrade than the 30D

Fujitsu P1610
Great 2.2lb computer that does most of my travel / writing needs

28mm f1.8 Lens
A great lens for closeup work and full picture photography

Foodsaver Advanced
Finally got the right tools for freezing green coffee.

Canon 50mm 1.4
Most amazing lens I've ever owned. Produces stellar photos.

Canon 10-22mm
Super wide angle (full frame fisheye) zoom for my Canon 20D